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Course Syllabus - Fall Quarter 2024 | |
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Lecture Times: MWF 12:10 pm - 1:00 pm Room: Earth and Physical Sciences 1316
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Instructor:
John Rundle Office: 534B Physics Office Hours: By Appointment |
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Course Text:
Patrick Abbott, Natural Disasters, McGraw-Hill (any recent edition: "Reference" edition is 8th edition) I strongly recommend that you rent an e-text, rather than buying, Text can be obtained from the following vendors:
Amazon Barnes and Noble
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Web Sites We Will Use (IRIS) Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (NCAR) National Center for Atmospheric Research NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) NOAA National Weather Service Flood Forecasts NOAA National Hurricane Center US Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Center Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) |
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Prerequisites
Standard prerequisites for admission to UC
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General Comments: We live in an uncertain world. Hazards and risk are common. The world is a complex system. How can we understand and manage our exposure to hazards and risk? How can we recover when the worst happens? The world wide web offers many new possibilities. In this course, we will discuss many examples, drawn from the field of natural hazards -- earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes and the like -- as well as other types of hazards. We will also discuss new ideas using internet technologies to anticipate, mitigate, respond, and recover from disasters of various types. Forecasting and data-driven analyses are important, along with social networking to build resilient communities. Many of these ideas originate from discussions at the Santa Fe Institute. We will also be using several recently developed web sites focused on risk from natural catastrophes and disasters. One of the major goals of the course is to teach students how to use the online resources that are available to understand the level of risk that populations face, as well as how to develop the skills and tools to mitigate and respond to these risks. There will be an elementary discussion of probability and statistics and how these are used to understand hazards and risk. We will also cover some new topics relating to how risk is managed and transferred through the use of financial securities such as Catatstrophe Bonds and other forms of insurance and re-insurance.
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Course Content
Topics to be Covered Include:
1. Introduction: The concept of risk
2. Plate tectonics and earthquakes
3. Tsunamis
4. Volcanic Eruptions
5. Weather: Tornados and severe storms 6. Hurricanes, typhoons, and tropical cyclones
7. Floods
8. Wildfires
9. Society and its response
10. Forecasting
11. Risk management and how it is currently practised
12. The role of new technologies in managing and mitigating risk
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Class Papers/Projects
The papers should be 4 to 7 pages single spaced (see paper guidlines) researching and discussing some topic on hazards and risk, possibly involving some computer calculation/graphics, demonstrating and understanding the basic ideas about the occurrence of hazards and/or the management of risk. It can also be an application to a real system such as a survey of risk for houses or businesses in Davis or elsewhere. The first paper should be on a topic related to solid earth hazards, the first part of the course. The second paper can be on any topic relevant to the second half of the course: climate, wildfires, floods, bolide impacts, etc. Another possibility is the current pandemic, and how lessons that we are learning are relevant to other types of hazards and risk.
Examples might
include: 1. A discussion of earthquake, tsunami, or hurricane/typhoon forecasting 2. A survey of hazards in California and how these might affect people you know 3. A research project to model and manage risk through the development and use of new methods 4. A discussion of how wildfires are contatined and the consequences of current policy 5. A discussion of the recent hurricanes Irma and Harvey and their impacts 6. A paper on floods and how the national flood insurance program is implemented 7. A paper on the current pandemic and how lessons learned can be applied to other hazards
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