Course Schedule and Readings: Physics 255 Econophysics

Required Texts:

R. Mantegna and H.E. Stanley, An Introduction to Econophysics, Cambridge (2000)

P.R. Bevington and D.K. Robinson, Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, McGraw-Hill (1992)

Optional and Other Reading:

Sitabhra Sinha, Arnab Chatterjee, Anirban Chakraborti, Bikas Chrakrabarti, Econophysics, An Introduction, Wiley (2011)

Paul Krugman, End This Depression Now, W.W. Norton (2012); also The Return of Depression Economics, W.W. Norton(2009)

Michael Lewis, Flash Boys, W.W. Norton (2014); The Big Short, W.W. Norton (2010); and, Liars Poker, W.W. Norton (1989)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan, Random House (2010)

William Poundstone, Fortune's Formula, Hill and Wang (2005)

Justin Fox, The Myth of the Rational Market, HarperCollins (2009)

Mebane Faber and Eric Richardson, The Ivy Portfolio, John Wiley (2009)

Burton Makiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, W.W. Norton (2007)

Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L Hudson, The Misbehavior of Markets, A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence, Basic Books (2007)

Michael Mauboussin, The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing, Harvard Business Review Press (2012)

Scott Patterson, The Quants, Crown Business Press (2011); also Dark Pools, Crown Business Press (2012)

D. Stauffer and A.Aharony, Introduction to Percolation, CRC Press (1991)

G.A. Holton, Value-at-Risk (Online Book)

Ray Dalio, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail (2021) (Link)


 

Get Adobe Acrobat Reader

 

Please note that homework should be turned into Professor Rundle by 5:00 pm on the due date.


Please also refer to the code of Academic Conduct


 

Web Sites with Definitions, Data, Models and Discussions

Seeking Alpha

Investopedia (for explanations and definitions)

MarketWatch (Market News and Information)

Seasonality: Chances of Stock Market Up or Down by Month

Success/Fail Record of Professional Investors

New York Fed Recession Probability Indicator

Neil Howe on the Future of Society

Definition of Free Cash Flow

Stock Chart Technical Analysis (Free)

How Banks Create Money Through Fractional Reserve Banking

Stock to Flow Model for Bitcoin (2019)

Bitcoin Realized Price (Current)

Valuation from Bitcoin Network Effect

Real Time Model of Bitcoin Value (Buy Bitcoin Worldwide)

Valuing Bitcoin - Panel Discussion Crypto 2022 (31:35)

The (Long) Crypto Story (Bloomberg)

Beveridge Curve (BLS: Jobs Openings vs. Unemployment)

Phillips Curve (Inflation vs. Unemployment))

Taylor Rule (Used to Set Fed Funds Rate))

Okuns's Law (Employment vs. GDP)

Yard Sale Model of the Evolution of Wealth Inequality


 

Market News and Commentary

Steve Liesman on Corporate Debt (2023) (6:25)

Commercial Real Estate Debt Bomb (7:06)

Stocks on Verge of Lost Decade? (10/22/2024)

Are We in an "Everything" Bull Market? (9/26/2024)

Prospects for GDP Growth in the 3rd Quarter (9/26/2024)

Mark Cuban on the Future of AI (9/26/2024)

David Tepper on the Prospect of Fed Rate Cuts (9/26/2024)

Business Wire Article on Fennel Markets (11/2022)

Bill Miller on Bitcoin

Bill Miller Says Bitcoin Trickle Could Turn into a Torrent

Wyoming Introducing a Crypto Payment System


 

Quant Methods

Basics of Quant Investing

Suzy Moat on Big Data

Jim Simons on Quant Investing

NY Times Article on AI

CNBC Explanation of Yield Curve Inversions

NY Times Article on Investing Strategy: Buy at the Close, Sell on the Open

World Quant University Masters of Science in Financial Engineering

Kelly Criterion for Investing


 

Trading Algorithms and Models

9 Tools for Algo Trading

Trend Following Model

A Python Trading Strategy

Trading Moving Averages


Week

Reading (Topic)

Reading Assignment

Chapter/Section



Projects

 

Project Due Date

1 September 23

Introduction to Econophysics

Power Laws

Santa Fe Institute Morgan Stanley Meeting

Phase Transitions and Markets - I

Phase Transitions and Markets - II

Flash Boys


2 September 30

Markets and Finance

Arbitrage and Trading

Terminology: Derivaties, Futures, Forwards and Options

Short Selling (4:10)

Explanation of Short Selling

Arbitrage (4:16)

The Game Stop Short Squeeze (vlogbrothers: 3:59)

The Game Stop Short Squeeze (Forbes: 4:10)

Flash Boys: Brad Katsuyama (3:25)

Flash Boys: Michael Lewis (2:41)

Flash Boys: Michael Lewis (8:32)

Michael Lewis: Nobody Understands the Stock Market (Its a complex system) (13:19)



Mantegna and Stanley
Chapters 1&2


Exchanged Traded Funds

Example of Technical Analysis


Project 1:
Returns and Drawdowns
Th October 3

3 October 7

Introduction to
Probability

Statistical Distributions


Random Walk

Bevington and Robinson
Chapters 1,
2

Project 2: Statistical Distributions Th October 17

4 October 14

Statistical Distributions (cont)

Mean and Variance

Portfolio Optimization by Mean Variance Analysis Intro (2:28)

Efficient Frontier Simply Explained (2:53)

Efficient Frontier Examples(Farhat: 9:03)

Ray Dalio on How the Economy Works (2:28)

Markowitz Theory and Portfolio Construction (9:12)

Probability Distributions in Algorithmic Trading (10:51)

Binomial Distribution

Poisson Distribution

Normal Distribution

Levy Stable Distributions



Bevington and Robinson
Chapter
4
, Sections 4.1, 4.4



Project 3:
Future Index Values

Th October 24
(short assignment)

5 October 21


Stochastic Processes - I


Maximum Likelihood

Monte Carlo Methods

Random Walks

Levy Stable Processes

Michael Mauboussin on Investing (SFI: 1:03:17)


Bevington and Robinson
Chapter
5
, Sections 5.1-5.3



Project 4:
Fat Tails of Financial Time Series

Th October 31

6 October 28


Stochastic Processes - II

Convolution

Fourier Transforms

Quantitative Finance (6:40)

Time Series Prediction (11:01)

Time Series Prediction with Machine Learning (13:52)


Mantegna and Stanley
Chapter 3, Sections 3.1-3.3


Short Paragraph on Your Proposed Project Tu November 14

7 November 4


Stochastic Processes - III

Power Spectra

Financial Data

What is a Random Walk? (12:34)

A Random Walk Down Wall Street (11:32)

Random Walks and Volatility Clustering (9:42)


Mantegna and Stanley
(Chapter 4 optional)
Chapter 5

 

Project 5: Volatility and Cross Correlation

Tu November 26

8 November 11

Statistics of Stationary Time Series, Autocorrelation, Cross-correlation

Price Dynamics and Scaling

Chaos Theory and Stock Prices (9:29)

Chaos, Fractals and Financial Markets (9:29)

Elliott Wave Theory Trading Basics (8:03)

Forex Trading (EUR/USD) with Fractals (7:21)



Mantegna and Stanley
Chapter 6-7


   

9 November 18

Correlations and Anticorrelations in Stock Portfolios;

Options

Investing Strategies: Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis

Fundamental Analysis: How to Analyze a Balance Sheet like Warren Buffet (8:27)

Why Technical Analysis is Garbage (9:59)

I Stopped Using Technical Analysis. Here's What Happened (10:02)

Technical Analysis: Why it Works and its Limitations (7:30)

What Do Hedge Funds Think of Technical Analysis? (16:03)

Warren Buffet on Ben Graham (9:51)

Jim Simons TED Talk (23:07)

Story of Jim Simons (15:55)

Development of Black-Scholes-Merton Equation (7:54)

Mathematics of Black-Scholes-Merton Equation (14:02)

Building a Trading Model with AI (9:02)

Using AI for Trading (6:51)



Mantegna and Stanley
(Chapter 8 optional)
Chapter 9

Correlation and Trees


Final Project

Paper Guidelines

 

10 November 25


Phase Transitions, Critical Phenomena and Market Stability

Agent-Based Simulations

Blockchain Technology, Money and Cryptocurrencies

Bill Miller III on Bitcoin I (9:52)

Bill Miller III on Bitcoin II (3:09)

Bill Miller III on Investing Advice (12:22)

Tom Lee on Bitcoin (11/29/2024) (35:59)

Cathie Wood (Ark Investments: 34:53)

Don Tapscott on Blockchain (18:49)

Mechanics of Bitcoin (7:36)

Could Bitcoin be the Future of Money? (9:24)

Michael Saylor on Bitcoin Strategy (3:22)

Microstrategy Chair Michael Saylor on Bitcoin (10:00)

Bill Miller IV on Investing in Microstrategy (3:56)



Mantegna and Stanley
(Chapter 10-11, 13 optional)
Chapter 12, 14-15

 

10 December 2


Blockchain Technology, Money and Cryptocurrencies (Continued)

Impact of Machine Learning and AI

Summary and Discussion


Suggested Reading: The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous

  Course Projects Due
by 5:00 pm December 6 (Friday)